Rigorous Research. Predictive Intelligence. One Source.
Archimedes Research Group delivers rigorous, transparent economic indicators for investment managers, banks, and policy teams — at a price tier the major data vendors don't serve.
Our Indicators
Named, Proprietary, Reproducible
Each ARG indicator is built from publicly available FRED data, backtested against every NBER recession cycle since 1975, and published with full methodology documentation.
Flagship
ARG Recession Probability Model
A probit model estimating 12-month-ahead NBER recession probability. Anchored by the yield curve, initial claims, payroll growth, and the Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index.
● LiveARG Inflation Regime Classifier
A 5-state model classifying the current inflation environment using CPI sub-indices, services inflation, and capacity utilization. Signals regime shifts before they become consensus.
◌ Coming SoonARG Financial Conditions Index
A composite index of credit spreads, funding pressure, financial stress, and monetary conditions — a single number capturing how tight or easy financial conditions are.
◌ Coming SoonARG Consumer Stress Barometer
Tracks household financial durability using debt service ratios, credit card delinquencies, and consumer sentiment — an early warning on demand-side deterioration.
◌ Coming Soon
Why Archimedes
Rigorous by Design. Priced for Reality.
We produce the same caliber of macroeconomic research as the major data vendors — with full methodology transparency and pricing that mid-size institutions can actually afford.
01
Transparent Methodology
Every indicator ships with full documentation: data sources, model specification, variable definitions, and historical fit statistics. No black boxes.
02
FRED-Anchored Data
We build on Federal Reserve Economic Data — the gold standard for U.S. macro series. Our edge is in the transformation, modeling, and interpretation layer on top.
03
Right-Sized Pricing
Annual subscriptions from $2,000–$25,000/year — accessible to mid-size RIAs, regional banks, and municipal finance teams that major vendors price out.
04
Backtested, Not Backcrafted
All models validated against NBER recession cycles back to 1975 — including 1980, 1982, 1990–91, 2001, 2008–09, and 2020.
Who We Serve
Built for Professionals, Not Just Large Institutions
ARG is designed for organizations that need institutional-quality macro research but have been underserved by major data vendors.
Investment Managers
RIAs and asset managers needing macro risk signals for allocation decisions
Regional Banks
Credit teams and treasury functions tracking macro conditions for risk management
Private Equity Ops
PE ops teams monitoring the macro environment for portfolio company planning
Government & Policy
Municipal finance offices, state agencies, and policy researchers
See ARG Indicators in Action
Request a complimentary sample of the ARG Monthly Macro Brief — the flagship 5–10 page PDF covering recession probability, inflation regime, and financial conditions.
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