Archimedes Research Group

Rigorous Research. Predictive Intelligence. One Source.

Archimedes Research Group delivers rigorous, transparent economic indicators for investment managers, banks, and policy teams — at a price tier the major data vendors don't serve.

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80+ FRED Series
50 Years of Data
NBER-Validated Back-tests
Public-Data Methodology
Monthly Updates

Our Indicators

Named, Proprietary, Reproducible

Each ARG indicator is built from publicly available FRED data, backtested against every NBER recession cycle since 1975, and published with full methodology documentation.

Flagship

📉

ARG Recession Probability Model

A probit model estimating 12-month-ahead NBER recession probability. Anchored by the yield curve, initial claims, payroll growth, and the Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index.

● Live

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ARG Inflation Regime Classifier

A 5-state model classifying the current inflation environment using CPI sub-indices, services inflation, and capacity utilization. Signals regime shifts before they become consensus.

◌ Coming Soon

⚖️

ARG Financial Conditions Index

A composite index of credit spreads, funding pressure, financial stress, and monetary conditions — a single number capturing how tight or easy financial conditions are.

◌ Coming Soon

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ARG Consumer Stress Barometer

Tracks household financial durability using debt service ratios, credit card delinquencies, and consumer sentiment — an early warning on demand-side deterioration.

◌ Coming Soon

Why ArchimedesRigorous by Design. Priced for Reality.
We produce the same caliber of macroeconomic research as the major data vendors — with full methodology transparency and pricing that mid-size institutions can actually afford.01

        Transparent Methodology
        Every indicator ships with full documentation: data sources, model specification, variable definitions, and historical fit statistics. No black boxes.
      
02

        FRED-Anchored Data
        We build on Federal Reserve Economic Data — the gold standard for U.S. macro series. Our edge is in the transformation, modeling, and interpretation layer on top.
      
03

        Right-Sized Pricing
        Annual subscriptions from $2,000–$25,000/year — accessible to mid-size RIAs, regional banks, and municipal finance teams that major vendors price out.
      
04

        Backtested, Not Backcrafted
        All models validated against NBER recession cycles back to 1975 — including 1980, 1982, 1990–91, 2001, 2008–09, and 2020.
      

Who We ServeBuilt for Professionals, Not Just Large Institutions
ARG is designed for organizations that need institutional-quality macro research but have been underserved by major data vendors.
      📊
      Investment Managers
      RIAs and asset managers needing macro risk signals for allocation decisions
    

      🏦
      Regional Banks
      Credit teams and treasury functions tracking macro conditions for risk management
    

      🏢
      Private Equity Ops
      PE ops teams monitoring the macro environment for portfolio company planning
    

      🏛️
      Government & Policy
      Municipal finance offices, state agencies, and policy researchers
    

  See ARG Indicators in Action
  Request a complimentary sample of the ARG Monthly Macro Brief — the flagship 5–10 page PDF covering recession probability, inflation regime, and financial conditions.