AFCI47.9NEUTRAL·Recession Prob11.0%↓ 3.2pp·Inflation RegimeOn-Target54.9%·Tariff Uncertainty18.3↓ 28.7·Consumer Stress52.1↑ 1.8·Earnings Sentiment+2.7POSITIVE·DXY-1.2%↓ 5D·10Y UST4.31%↑ 4bp·AFCI47.9NEUTRAL·Recession Prob11.0%↓ 3.2pp·Inflation RegimeOn-Target54.9%·Tariff Uncertainty18.3↓ 28.7·Consumer Stress52.1↑ 1.8·Earnings Sentiment+2.7POSITIVE·DXY-1.2%↓ 5D·10Y UST4.31%↑ 4bp·

Archimedes Research Group

A research firm for macro, geopolitics, and markets.

Archimedes Research Group publishes narrative analysis, operates a proprietary signal platform joining macro regimes to corporate fundamentals, and maintains a live cross-border capital tracker — built for strategy teams, CIOs, and allocators who need to connect the macro picture to the positions they hold.

APR 23, 2026· Macro · Geopolitics · Markets

Live Signal Matrix

APR 23, 2026

Recession Probability
Inflation Regime
AFCI
Consumer Stress
Tariff Uncertainty
Earnings Sentiment
Sign in for live values

How We Work

What the firm believes.

01

Primary sources, always.

We work from auditable filings, regulatory disclosures, and official statistical releases. No secondhand aggregation, no black-box vendor feeds.

02

Methodology you can audit.

Every proprietary signal is documented — what it measures, how it behaves across regimes, and where it's known to break. Transparency is a product feature.

03

Insight over summary.

We write in the idiom of a macro and strategy research firm — causality, implications, and specific watch lists. Not bullet-point decks.

Get in Touch

Working with us.

Institutional subscriptions, custom research, and enterprise integrations — reach out to discuss a brief.