Institutional Macro Intelligence
Archimedes Research Group builds executive-ready intelligence at the intersection of macroeconomics, geopolitics, and financial markets. We pair published narrative research with an institutional platform of proprietary signals — every output grounded in auditable primary-source data.
Sourcing
Auditable primary data only
Coverage
Developed & emerging markets
Cadence
Daily macro · weekly corporate
Outputs
Signals, scorecards, research
What We Do
Research
Country deep dives, sector notes, and narrative geopolitics — written the way a strategy team briefs its principals, not a newsletter.
Read the library
Models
Recession probability, financial conditions, inflation regime, tariff uncertainty — a proprietary signal suite built on auditable primary-source data.
How we work
Capital
A live tracker of foreign direct investment — which countries are receiving capital, who's deploying it, and where it's landing.
Open FDI tracker
Latest Research
Dollar weakness is more than a cyclical move — it reflects a crisis of confidence in the US growth narrative. ARG maps what sustained DXY softness means for EM debt service, commodity producer windfalls, and the long-term shift away from dollar-denominated external financing.
Martin Harrison
Q1 beats are in — but guidance is the story. Management teams across financials and tech are refusing to forecast H2 with any conviction, widening revenue ranges and calling capex plans 'under review.' ARG's Earnings Sentiment Composite at 3.38 and deteriorating captures exactly this fog.
Martin Harrison
The IMF's spring WEO cuts global growth to 2.8% — but the headline obscures a structural fault line between trade-exposed economies (Germany, Korea, Mexico) absorbing 1.2–1.8pp cuts and domestic-demand economies barely touched. ARG's sovereign risk framework maps what this divergence demands from institutional positioning.
Martin Harrison
Shelter CPI rose 3.0% year-over-year in March 2026, running above core inflation and contributing over 1 full percentage point to headline CPI. Despite 186 basis points of Fed rate cuts, mortgage rates sit at 6.37% — a spread of 273 basis points over fed funds that is keeping housing supply frozen and rent disinflation structurally delayed.
Martin Harrison
Credit card delinquency rates have reached post-GFC highs and household debt service ratios sit at decade peaks — a confluence that historically precedes demand slowdowns. ARG's Consumer Stress Index at 52.1 confirms the signal is no longer subtle.
Martin Harrison
Asia-Pacific's strongest FDI showing in over a decade signals a structural repricing of capital flows driven by U.S. trade policy uncertainty and Asia's industrial policy advantage.
Martin Harrison
Inside the Platform
Sign in to access the full signal suite, sovereign scorecards, large-cap fundamentals, scenario lab, and AI-assisted executive briefs.
Live Signal Matrix
Sovereign Risk Scorecard
Quarterly sovereign risk scoring — preview below
| Country | Rating | Debt/GDP | Growth | Inflation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | Low | 123.4% | +2.3% | 2.8% |
| Germany | Low | 63.7% | +0.8% | 2.1% |
| China | Moderate | 83.6% | +4.7% | 0.4% |
| Brazil | Moderate | 74.4% | +2.9% | 4.5% |
| Türkiye | High | 31.2% | +4.0% | 58.9% |
How We Source
Primary only
Auditable filings and official releases
Institutional
Regulators, statistical agencies, multilaterals
Daily refresh
High-frequency macro; weekly corporate
Proprietary layer
Signals, scorecards, and narrative research
Get started
Read our published research or open the full intelligence platform — proprietary signals, sovereign scorecards, corporate fundamentals, and an AI-assisted research environment.