Institutional Macro Intelligence

Decision-useful research
for a fragmenting world.

Archimedes Research Group builds executive-ready intelligence at the intersection of macroeconomics, geopolitics, and financial markets. We pair published narrative research with an institutional platform of proprietary signals — every output grounded in auditable primary-source data.

Sourcing

Auditable primary data only

Coverage

Developed & emerging markets

Cadence

Daily macro · weekly corporate

Outputs

Signals, scorecards, research

Latest Research

From the Archimedes desk.

Rates & PolicyApril 20, 2026

The Dollar's Unraveling: What a Weakening Greenback Means for Emerging Markets, Commodities, and Capital Flows

Dollar weakness is more than a cyclical move — it reflects a crisis of confidence in the US growth narrative. ARG maps what sustained DXY softness means for EM debt service, commodity producer windfalls, and the long-term shift away from dollar-denominated external financing.

Martin Harrison

CorporateApril 19, 2026

The Guidance Gap: What Q1 Earnings Are Really Telling Us About Corporate America's Soft Landing Bet

Q1 beats are in — but guidance is the story. Management teams across financials and tech are refusing to forecast H2 with any conviction, widening revenue ranges and calling capex plans 'under review.' ARG's Earnings Sentiment Composite at 3.38 and deteriorating captures exactly this fog.

Martin Harrison

MacroApril 17, 2026

The Great Divergence: IMF's Spring WEO Draws a Fault Line Through the Global Economy

The IMF's spring WEO cuts global growth to 2.8% — but the headline obscures a structural fault line between trade-exposed economies (Germany, Korea, Mexico) absorbing 1.2–1.8pp cuts and domestic-demand economies barely touched. ARG's sovereign risk framework maps what this divergence demands from institutional positioning.

Martin Harrison

MacroApril 12, 2026

Shelter's Structural Grip: Why Housing Costs Are the Fed's Last Inflation Problem

Shelter CPI rose 3.0% year-over-year in March 2026, running above core inflation and contributing over 1 full percentage point to headline CPI. Despite 186 basis points of Fed rate cuts, mortgage rates sit at 6.37% — a spread of 273 basis points over fed funds that is keeping housing supply frozen and rent disinflation structurally delayed.

Martin Harrison

MacroApril 12, 2026

The Credit Canary: What Rising Delinquencies Signal About the Next Phase of the Cycle

Credit card delinquency rates have reached post-GFC highs and household debt service ratios sit at decade peaks — a confluence that historically precedes demand slowdowns. ARG's Consumer Stress Index at 52.1 confirms the signal is no longer subtle.

Martin Harrison

GeopoliticalApril 10, 2026

The Great Capital Pivot: Asia's Rise in the Global FDI Race

Asia-Pacific's strongest FDI showing in over a decade signals a structural repricing of capital flows driven by U.S. trade policy uncertainty and Asia's industrial policy advantage.

Martin Harrison

Inside the Platform

Live signals. Audited sourcing. Decisions, not dashboards.

Sign in to access the full signal suite, sovereign scorecards, large-cap fundamentals, scenario lab, and AI-assisted executive briefs.

Live Signal Matrix

Recession Probability
Inflation Regime
AFCI
Consumer Stress
Tariff Uncertainty
Earnings Sentiment
Sign in for live values

Sovereign Risk Scorecard

Quarterly sovereign risk scoring — preview below

CountryRatingDebt/GDPGrowthInflation
United StatesLow123.4%+2.3%2.8%
GermanyLow63.7%+0.8%2.1%
ChinaModerate83.6%+4.7%0.4%
BrazilModerate74.4%+2.9%4.5%
TürkiyeHigh31.2%+4.0%58.9%

How We Source

Primary only

Auditable filings and official releases

Institutional

Regulators, statistical agencies, multilaterals

Daily refresh

High-frequency macro; weekly corporate

Proprietary layer

Signals, scorecards, and narrative research

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Bring Archimedes into your workflow.

Read our published research or open the full intelligence platform — proprietary signals, sovereign scorecards, corporate fundamentals, and an AI-assisted research environment.